Tips and tricks to create distributions given expert’s opinion or few data points.
Selecting the right distribution.
We present several exercises for eliciting a distribution for commuting time of a driver. The individual examples present different approaches to estimating a distribution function mostly when no historic data is available, and only the expert’s opinion is available. Only two examples provide historic information. We start with simple examples and build increasingly more sophisticated distributions.
By the end of these thirteen exercises, the user will have also practiced various commands, settings and tips that will help him or her master @RISK’s usage.
The variable in question here is to select the best distribution for the driving time of a certain commuter who provides information about his/her usual driving times during workings days at the usual hour at which he/she usually commits to work.